Industrial real estate broker and investor Chad Griffiths stumbled onto the asset class he now knows and loves by complete accident. When he joined a company as a broker in 2005, his mentors were heavily involved in industrial real estate, so he naturally ended up learning all about it. Today, he is a partner at NAI Commercial Real Estate and invests in properties as well. In this episode, Chad discusses the state of the industrial space across various markets and explains why now is the ideal time to get in on it.
Markets with the Highest Industrial Growth and Demand
As e-commerce continues to grow, Chad predicts a considerable demand for industrial real estate — particularly warehousing — in the Rust Belt. He also predicts a resurgence in manufacturing as a result of current supply chain issues. There will likely be more resourcing or on-shoring for manufacturers in order to start making things in North America. “I wouldn’t be surprised if we actually see distribution spaces and manufacturing spaces continue to grow for the foreseeable future,” he says.
This growth is happening the strongest right now in port markets like Los Angeles, New York, New Jersey, and Vancouver, Canada. These markets, Chad says, have less than 1% vacancy, which means we’ll likely begin to see vertical growth in the form of multistory warehouses. He predicts this growth will spill over to inland markets like Chicago, Dallas, Kansas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee.
The Best Opportunities for New Industrial Investors
If you’re looking to invest in industrial real estate for the first time, Chad recommends focusing on areas experiencing a positive population influx, like the Sun Belt — particularly Florida, Texas, and North and South Carolina. “My number-one area that I’d be invested in right now is Florida,” he says. “I think that there’s so much happening in that area. I don’t see that market declining anytime soon from a population migration standpoint.”
Why Manufacturing Development Indicates Population and Job Growth
Regardless of your chosen asset class, Chad says that watching where manufacturing is being developed is a lead indicator for population and job growth. Because manufacturers often pay relatively high salaries for skilled laborers, they naturally spur this kind of growth wherever they appear. That's why he expects to see an increase in both population and job growth in the Rust Belt next.
Chad Griffiths | Real Estate Background
- Partner at NAI Commercial Real Estate. He’s an industrial real estate broker and investor, focusing on cash-flowing industrial properties with the goal of incrementally raising rents and values by extension.
- Portfolio:
- GP of five industrial properties ranging from $400,000 to $4,500,000
- Owns several industrial REITs in the U.S.
- LP of one multi-tenant office/retail property
- Based in: Edmonton, Alberta, CA
- Say hi to him at:
- Best Ever Book: The Bomber Mafia by Malcolm Gladwell
- Greatest lesson: There are asymmetries in real estate knowledge, so the person with the most knowledge has an undeniable advantage.
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TRANSCRIPT
Slocomb Reed: Best Ever listeners, welcome to The Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever Show. I'm Slocomb Reed and I'm here with Chad Griffiths. Chad is joining us from Alberta, Canada. His business is NAI Commercial Real Estate. He's an industrial real estate broker and investor. Currently, the GP of five industrial properties ranging from 400,00 to $4.5 million in value. He owns several industrial REITs in the US and he's an LP of a multi-tenant office and retail property as well. Chad, can you start us off with a little more about your background and what you're currently focused on?
Chad Griffiths: Yeah. Thanks, Slocomb. I'm really excited to be on the show and talk about all things industrial real estate.
Slocomb Reed: Glad to have you.
Chad Griffiths: Yeah. I love chatting about this stuff, so it's an honor to be here. I got started in 2005, I joined a company as a broker. I didn't know much about industrial real estate at the time; it was really this opaque industry that a lot of people just don't have very much familiarity with. Like, everybody's familiar with office, retail, and multifamily. But when I started, I knew very little about industrial real estate. The office that I joined was heavily involved in industrial, so the people that I was learning from and mentoring under, that's just the path that I ended up taking. So it was purely accidental that I really got into industrial.
But fast-forward today, 17 years later, I have partnered with the firm, and then in 2014 I also started investing in properties myself. Trying to add a property every year; a little bit challenging over the past couple of years with all the uncertainty and the pandemic and everything, but we've been pretty consistent, closed on another property earlier this year for about $4.5 million dollars, and we're just completing a major renovation on another property that we have, which the covering's just about to come off the exterior. So it's been an interesting ride, I love talking about this, it's just really a passion of mine beyond working in it full-time and having the majority of my net worth tied into industrial real estate. I just love talking about it.
Slocomb Reed: Yeah, absolutely. I'm in a very similar place apartments-wise. I became a residential real estate agent here several years ago. All of my investing, like real estate, my career - it's my hobby, it's what I love talking about, that's what all my friends do, totally. So as a broker, do you specialize in industrial real estate on what you sell?
Chad Griffiths: I don't personally, although by nature of the market that I work in, Alberta is very close to Texas. We've got a heavy oil and gas exposure so we've got a disproportionate amount of manufacturing properties in our market. Whereas the big buzzword of the day in industrial is warehousing or distribution centers, our market has a lot of manufacturing. So by nature of just being in that market, I've probably done more manufacturing type of properties than I have warehousing. But we're also a market of about a million people, and in that range there aren't a lot of people that specialize in one specific area.
If you go to a market like LA, as an example, there will be somebody that specializes just in warehouses right on the port. It will become that "the more specialized, the bigger the market you get to". I'm in a market where I've done sales and leasing on the full spectrum: warehousing, manufacturing, flex properties.
Slocomb Reed: Gotcha. How much of your industrial investing is there in your local market and how much of it is non-local?
Chad Griffiths: Actually, all of it is local. I can drive to every building that I own, about 20 minutes from my office. Part of that was designed; it's a market that I've worked in extensively for a number of years, so I just know it really well and I'm comfortable with it. I just feel that I've got a lot more information about my local market than I do in another market. That's one of the reasons that I've tried diversifying a little bit by owning some REITs. It's kind of funny, I own a lot of hard assets of industrial real estate and even the stocks that I own are in industrial real estate. So maybe that's not the best diversification standpoint from a financial high-level look, but I just love industrial real estate. I try to balance out my physical assets with industrial REITs which own property all over the world.
Slocomb Reed: Awesome. Now, you were introduced as a general partner in five industrial properties. What does your partnership structure look like, and are you raising capital from limited partners for your acquisitions?
Chad Griffiths: We've actually not done general partnerships, actually. We've done more of actually just like an LLC. I've got one main partner; him and I have done everything together, and then we've strategically brought on other people with some of them. A couple of the properties it's just him and I and one or two small partners, and on some of the larger stuff we might have eight or nine partners. But we've actually done it where we've set up a separate company for each one of these. It is on the horizon that I do want to do more syndication. I'm an LP in one project myself, but I would like to sponsor more deals going forward. But I also wanted to establish a track record of showing that we've got the capacity and capabilities of doing this on our own.
As of right now, we haven't raised any money for our small fund, but we might look to roll over some of these properties into a fund down the road, or just set up a new syndication altogether. But our experience has been we wanted to invest in it directly, we wanted to have control, we wanted everybody that participated to know that we're also involved with our own money. That was important to us right from the beginning.
Slocomb Reed: Awesome. You said that you are involved in or own a handful of REITs in the United States. Those are controlling industrial real estate as well?
Chad Griffiths: Yeah. How it works with most REITs in the US, in particular, the biggest ones... And the biggest one by far is Prologis; that stock ticker's PLG. They're actually the biggest property owner in the world. So not even just industrial real estate, they're the biggest property owner in the world. They've got a billion square feet worth of industrial real estate in key markets all over, predominantly in the US, but all over; in major port cities... And I like that from the standpoint that their portfolio is geared to take advantage of that e-commerce boom. I don't see that slowing down anytime soon, I think that that's still going to be a trend for the foreseeable future. They've got some of the best real estates in the world, in the most strategic markets.
So instead of me trying to compete with an institutional-grade company like that and physically owning the real estate, I can invest in them, make a small dividend, and hopefully participate in some appreciation of the stock. It's gone up; even from when I've bought it, it's actually done quite well. But I also own STAG and Duke Realty, these are two other ones that I've got shares in as well. I like having that consistent dividend, I believe in that market segment, and I like the intelligence that they have as well. I feel that being invested in those companies makes me follow their reports more closely.
I read their quarterly reports, occasionally, we'll even jump onto their quarterly earnings calls, and just see what type of documents and research that they're putting out, which I think informs me as an investor myself, just based on all the sheer amount of research that these guys are putting out and producing.
Slocomb Reed: That's awesome. I really want to dive into that. But before we get too far down the rabbit hole, Chad, if I can ask why is it that you are investing in REITs - is it simply because they are the largest, most powerful, most heavily analytical, and researched industrial real estate owners in the world? Or is it specific to their structure as REITs that makes them appealing to you as an investor?
Chad Griffiths: I would say the main reason that I invest in them is just liquidity. Because the majority of my investments are in physical real estate, which as you know too, it's hard to actually pull money out of those, at least quickly. You can always refinance, you could sell if you have to, but that's a long cycle. Whereas REITs - it's still an industry that I just believe in; I think it's going to continue doing well. But if I need to access some short-term money to buy another property, or whatever I need it for, I can liquidate those positions on a trading day. That's probably the main reason that I like it. I love having the access to the research that they produce. You're dealing with the most sophisticated owners and analysts and people that are thinking of the business from a completely different level than I would in my small local market.
Having access to that type of information just gives me something that I believe others that aren't following it don't have. Those will be the two main reasons. The dividends that they pay aren't great; it can range from 2.5% to 4% so it's not a huge dividend-paying stock. So you're sort of relying on some appreciation in that, but I think it's a very safe investment, liquidity, and access to research. It's a lot of reasons for me to be favorable of that.
Slocomb Reed: Liquidity and access to research within an industry that you're already focused on full-time, not to mention some dividend and some appreciation. That makes a lot of sense, Chad, given the amount of research you have access to, and the level and depth of your experience in industrial real estate, both as an investor and as a broker. Let's talk about what the last couple of years have looked like given the research and your own experience that you have exposure to, but also where you think industrial real estate is headed.
A lot of people are aware naturally that warehouses have become trendy; manufacturing - a less trendy market segment. You referenced e-commerce earlier; given the research that you've done, where are we currently seeing the most growth or the most demand and industrial real estate?
Chad Griffiths: Well, incidentally, you're right in that hotspot where there's going to be a considerable amount of growth. That's right that old rust belt area, which somewhat coincidentally, was born on manufacturing. So you guys have really seen a resurgence of industrial real estate, going from manufacturing of North America, so now I think you're going to actually see a huge boom in warehousing. I'm sure you've seen that in Cincinnati already, and all over Ohio and the East Coast, there are warehouses popping up everywhere.
You can't drive down a major road away from an airport and not see a million square foot distribution center anywhere. I think that that's actually going to continue because of the East Coast density of population; the vast majority of North America lives within like 5 to 10 hours where you're at, 5 to 10 hours of a drive. So I think that there's going to be a considerable amount of distribution space to continue to grow, because e-commerce is continuing to grow, this pandemic has certainly accelerated a lot of changing buyer habits... I know I ordered more stuff online over the past couple of years, and there are people that have never even ordered stuff online that are now doing it regularly. So I think e-commerce is going to continue to grow; that's probably not a surprise to anybody really, as they see all these warehouses popping up.
Perhaps a different angle on it is I think manufacturing is going to make a bit of a resurgence as well. That's been historically outsourced to Asia, it's just been jobs lost in that manufacturing sector. But with all these supply chain issues - and that's another buzzword; everyone's talking about supply chain bottlenecks. But it's a real thing; it can take quite a long time now for something to come via ship from Asia to North America. So I think there's going to be more resourcing or onshoring for manufacturers that are going to start making things in North America. That might be in Mexico, to take advantage of lower labor costs than US or Canada, or it could just be people making things in the US and Canada again. But oil prices are going to go up, so that's going to start an increasing demand for manufacturing places all over North America, regardless of whether it's big oil plays there or not; there are servicing companies that are responsible for this. And then the shift to making things again in North America, so we don't have these supply chain issues.
I wouldn't be surprised if we actually see distribution space and manufacturing space continue to grow for the foreseeable future, pending, of course, a recession or third world war. I don't think anyone's got a crystal ball on that. But assuming that there's not something catastrophic, I think industrial real estate as a whole is going to flourish for a few years. still.
Slocomb Reed: That's incredibly powerful, Chad. You're using a lot of buzzwords, and for people who are tracking the economy at large, real estate, including industrial real estate, some of the things you're saying are things that a lot of our listeners have been hearing for a while with regards to COVID, the changes in buying habits, the changes in global supply chains, the demand to be more local, to meet that fast-shipping deadline that we all crave nowadays. The research that you're currently doing, and reading on the research of the REITs, like Prologis, that you are invested in, where is that growth happening the strongest already?
Chad Griffiths: The easy answer is any port market. If you look at Los Angeles or you look at New York, New Jersey, or Canada if you're looking at Vancouver - these markets have sub 1% vacancy, which is almost unfathomable to really consider; less than 1% vacancy rate is essentially zero. There might be small pockets here or there, but there's really no inventory to choose from. The problem with these markets is that they all have impediments to growth. There's an ocean on one side of either them, the chances are there are mountains or rivers or something that's blocking them from growing in the other area.
So I think in those markets we'll start seeing more vertical growth, so you'll start seeing more multi-story warehouses. But that also introduces a lot more costs to the equation. Those markets are going crazy right now; there's no other way to describe how hot those markets are. But when you start looking beyond that and say, "Well, these companies can only afford so much rent. And if the rent is going to double because it has to be a multi-story warehouse property and the land costs are that high, well, then you start looking more to inland markets." That's why you're seeing a market like Dallas where there's 50 million square feet worth of industrial product under development right now, which is a crazy amount; 50 million square feet under development in one single market. That's because these markets are in dense areas. So no different than you in Ohio. I think Pennsylvania is going to be a crazy market going forward. I think a big hub like Chicago, which already has a billion square feet in its market, they're going to continue to grow because everything is going to flow through there. So I wouldn't be surprised if we see growth everywhere.
I know that that sounds almost like an easy blanket statement to make, but there's so much undersupply of high-quality distribution space, and the demand is outpacing it. And then you add on the fact that to build right now you're probably looking at 12 to 24 months to get a new product online. So you've got a real imbalance in that supply-demand curve, where demand is still ramping up. The supply hasn't been able to keep up, and it won't be able to keep up until some of these material backlogs can get resolved; labor is still an issue... So we're really in this position where developers are trying to get products to market, but it's just taking a while.
So these companies that need space - if you can't get warehouse space in New York right now because it's sub 1% vacancy, well, then you're going to start looking out to Pennsylvania, you may start looking out to Ohio, or Kansas, or Tennessee. You might start looking at more of these central areas where there is space available and there's still a great network of rail and highway systems to get to it. So I'm bullish, and you can tell how excited I just get talking about industrial real estate. I'm bullish about it because every market right now is really doing quite well from a landlord's side. It's a different story when you're looking at it from a tenant's standpoint. But from an investment standpoint, it's a really good time to be in industrial.
Slocomb Reed: Thank you, Chad. That's a very good answer to the question, and it helped me realize I asked the wrong question.
Chad Griffiths: Maybe I gave the wrong answer. If I did, I apologize.
Slocomb Reed: No. Your answer was excellent and very informative. Thinking about increasing warehouse space vertically in geographically limited port areas like Los Angeles. My gut tells me that sounds expensive. You talked about Middle America, and at the beginning of this conversation you talked about only being a five or 10-hour drive from where the vast majority of Americans live, here in the Midwest.
I know you only invest in hard assets in your local market there in Alberta. Are there any other markets that you're considering for yourself, Chad? Also, where do you think the opportunity is right now? It sounds like New York and Los Angeles have intense demand, but the values and the development costs are going to be astronomical. I'm a Best Ever podcast listener. I'm thinking about breaking into industrial real estate. Where is the opportunity for me?
Chad Griffiths: I would be focused on areas that are going to have a positive population influx. If I was looking in the US right now, I would be focusing predominantly on that Sunbelt. That's not to say that there aren't opportunities in other markets. I think if you can get a building that has a good quality tenant, vacancy rates are low, and there are still signs of positive growth, I think those markets can still work. But I'm a big believer that industrial real estate follows the population. When people move to Orlando, all of a sudden, there are that many more people that need groceries, they need products.
Everything that they're buying, whether they're buying online, or whether they're even just buying in a grocery store, all that product flows through a warehouse. So you can see that trend line based on population, and I think a lot of people are considering moving to that Sunbelt area. My number one area that I'd be invested in right now is Florida. I think that there's so much happening in that area. I don't see that market declining anytime soon from a population migration standpoint.
I think that that's probably where I'd be most focused on, but I'd still see opportunities in a market like Texas or Houston, which has big exposure to the oil and gas industry. That market has been pretty beaten up, as oil had that dip over the last seven years, now it's back up to $100 a barrel. I don't think that that's been priced into their asset values yet. So I would also consider a market like Houston, where they've probably had some downward pressure on prices. If oil stabilizes on this $100 a barrel, there could be a spike there. Plus, you've just got the benefit of people moving down to Texas. So I'd probably look at those areas.
The other one that I'd also consider would be the Carolinas, so North or South Carolina. I think that those are going to be pretty attractive areas from a population growth standpoint. But my number one market that I have actually considered is Florida.
Break: [00:22:19] - [00:24:03]
Slocomb Reed: Gotcha. Talking about the price of a barrel of oil, just to make a note, we're recording in mid-March 2022. There have been a lot of fluctuations in the cost and the value of oil recently. Best Ever listeners, today is March 18th 2022, and that's what Chad is quoting you from.
Now, Chad, last question before we transition here. You made mention of multi-million square foot distribution centers and having them put in middle America or the Midwest, just outside of the East Coast, where you have high population density but also high property value, which makes it easier and more affordable to put distribution centers in non-primary markets.
It's easy to see that industrial development is following population growth. Naturally, the more people in a market, the more stuff they need, the more capacity we have to have to deliver that stuff, and to manufacture that stuff. Are there any examples of industrial development leading to population growth through job growth? Because as we transition to a more e-commerce-driven economy, major companies like Amazon are recognizing that they need to be putting their distribution centers or other industrial facilities in areas where they are attracting jobs, and thereby population. Are we seeing industrial development cause population growth and job growth anywhere right now?
Chad Griffiths: That's a fascinating topic to explore, because coincidentally, I'm reading a book on the industrial revolution right now. When you start looking at the history of the factory -- and this is just very topical for me, because I'm reading it, not as we speak, but tonight I'll read a few pages, I'm sure; there's a guy by the name of Richard Arkwright who is known as like the creator of the factory system.
The industrial revolution started in the UK, call it like the 1760s, when the factory started to develop, and Richard Arkwright developed the system for the factory. Incidentally, that's what he noticed right away, is that he would make a factory, but you need to labor for it. So you've got this product, you've got the system, and they had the technology to spin cotton in there. But unless you have workers to actually man - or in their case, they used women and children, which is a deplorable topic on its own. But unless you have the people in there to actually work in the factory, the factory itself is useless.
So without question, there are some facets of industrial development which will spawn population growth. I'd say it'd be more on the manufacturing side; Detroit would be a good example. When they decided to start ramping up car production decades ago, that led to Detroit becoming Motor City, a big boomtown, and they flourished off that industrial development. So on the manufacturing side, yes. On the warehousing side, I've noticed that they typically tend to go where the population already is.
Without naming any companies by name, a lot of these companies intentionally try to pay as low wages as possible. So it's not a lucrative job if you're just someone that's sorting boxes. You're pretty much being paid minimum wage or slightly above. So for that business model, you need people there already. You're not going to attract a whole bunch of people to come work in a warehouse if they're paying minimum wage jobs. Whereas if it's a manufacturing job, and they need skilled labor, and there are considerably higher salaries being offered, I think you will see that.
So if you're trying to look at it as a leading indicator of where there could be population growth, I would look to see where manufacturing is headed. And just a hunch on my part, I think it's coming to your neck of the woods; that infrastructure is already in place, and there are a lot of manufacturing properties from the last boom that industry had. If I was a betting man, I would think that there's going to be manufacturing coming to your neck of the woods.
Slocomb Reed: Is it safe to say, then, Chad, for our Best Ever listeners who invest in asset classes outside of industrial, who are tracking population growth, which is directly impacted by job growth, watching where manufacturing is being developed is a lead indicator for population growth and job growth, and you expect to see it come into the rust belt?
Chad Griffiths: I believe that unequivocally; without question I see that happening. Far in anything beyond our control, of course, I do see population growth occurring in that rust belt area. Again, I think that there are a lot of factors at play here as well, so there's anything that can trump that, but I think that that is going to be a strong, solid place to be. Not just for industrial real estate, but for investors of all kinds. Outside of that New York area, I think that that market hasn't had the appreciation that some other areas have, and I'd be quite bullish on that rust belt area as a whole for the foreseeable future.
Slocomb Reed: Well, all my real estate investor friends in Cincinnati say "That sounds great." Chad, are you ready for our Best Ever lightning round?
Chad Griffiths: Love it. Let's do it.
Slocomb Reed: What is the Best Ever book you've recently read?
Chad Griffiths: I don't have the one that I'm reading right now, but I have read a good one. Give me one second, I actually do have it here. I know it's probably [unintelligible 00:29:22.19]
Slocomb Reed: Bomber Mafia, Malcolm Gladwell.
Chad Griffiths: Bomber Mafia by Malcolm Gladwell. It was awesome. It had really nothing to do with real estate, I'm just a fan of Malcolm Gladwell. I've read a number of his other books. He's an unbelievable storyteller. He's talking about World War II, just on how they coordinated some of their attacks and they narrowed in on one topic. I won't give too much away, but it was one of those books where you know within 20 pages whether it's going to be one that you've got to grapple with to get through, or one...
Slocomb Reed: Malcolm Gladwell is good at hooking you, for sure.
Chad Griffiths: He hooks you in.
Slocomb Reed: I went through a Malcolm Gladwell phase, too.
Chad Griffiths: It's a very good book, I really enjoyed that one.
Slocomb Reed: Awesome. What is your Best Ever way to give back, Chad?
Chad Griffiths: I like to take as much time as I can to help anybody that wants help. I regularly jump on calls with either brokers or investors across the world, if they just want to ask a question about industrial real estate. I've taken dozens and dozens of calls over the years with no expectation of anything in return. I don't ask for any money, I don't ask them for anything. I love talking about this. I benefited from it when I was younger, having more experienced people helped me, so I'd love to return that favor whenever I can.
Slocomb Reed: What is the Best Ever skill you've developed in commercial real estate investing?
Chad Griffiths: I think speaking confidently is an underrated skill. It sounds pretty easy to say, but it's a lot harder to do. I've found that people that are very successful in business are very good communicators. I did Toastmasters when I was younger, really tried to hone that skill and gain confidence in it. That has gone a long way in my business.
Slocomb Reed: What is your Best Ever advice?
Chad Griffiths: I would say whatever you do, find a way to add value to it. I would equate it to like a waiter at a restaurant. Some waiters will just go in and they'll just take your order and bring your food. A lot of people in the business world take that mentality and they just take instructions and they just do what they're asked. I think that to really succeed in the business world, you need to find ways to add value. So however you need to do it and however you think you can help somebody else out... If all you're bringing to the figurative table is a notepad and a pen, you're just not contributing anything. So find a way to add more value to people.
Slocomb Reed: Find a way to add value to people. Awesome. Where can people get in touch with you, Chad?
Chad Griffiths: Email's great, it's griffithscre@gmail.com. I've also got a YouTube page if people just want to hear more about industrial real estate. I've actually done over 100 videos on the topic now which is kind of crazy to admit. But the same mentality, I don't talk about my company or even mentioned where I'm located. My whole idea is just to give as much information as I can. If people get value then it's a win for me. Just search my name or search industrial real estate and it'll pop up.
Slocomb Reed: Great. Well, Chad, thank you. Best Ever listeners, thank you as well. If you got value out of this conversation with Chad Griffiths, please do subscribe to our show, leave us a five-star review, and share this with a friend who you know will gain value from the conversation we just had about the growth happening in industrial real estate. Thank you and have a Best Ever day.
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